{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c75c7a3-cbe1-44b8-956a-28b0483846fb", "symbol": "SCDS", "name": "JPMorgan Fundamental Data Science Small Core ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.659, "architecture_energy": 66.578, "architecture_maturity": 91.519, "architecture_confidence": 68.027, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.08, "rotation_up": 49.85, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 73.9, "rotation_down": 29.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.911993, 75.695164, 74.049985, 71.664905 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 77.4458, "trend_reference": 68.861228, "distance_from_trend": 0.124665, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.897399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.168941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.187863, "excess_performance": 0.000409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051689, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.119051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5679, "relative_activity": 1.189568, "balance": 6.119051, "dry_up": 1.495549, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023169, "annualized_volatility": 0.154797, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.433363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.861228, "fair_value_reference": 58.897399, "structural_low": 59.5819, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008398, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.04857, "worst_return": -0.059208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.091088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086862, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.091088, "worst_return": 0.091088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.301792, "energy": 77.354247, "activity_lines": [ 75.710598, 75.02703, 72.428916, 70.143305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.8994, "volume": 8827, "typical_volume": 3965.1, "trend": 67.897904, "fair_value": 58.561312, "relative_strength": 7.983144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.718792, "energy": 62.895819, "activity_lines": [ 75.42412, 75.164914, 72.952399, 70.624283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.966, "volume": 11743, "typical_volume": 4500.1, "trend": 68.384252, "fair_value": 58.719049, "relative_strength": 7.237386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.004358, "energy": 56.256692, "activity_lines": [ 75.217493, 75.22925, 73.417502, 71.080289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.4458, "volume": 5679, "typical_volume": 4774.0, "trend": 68.861228, "fair_value": 58.897399, "relative_strength": 5.168941, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.658949, "energy": 66.578094, "activity_lines": [ 75.911993, 75.695164, 74.049985, 71.664905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }