{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c7c0cdc-bd45-47ef-8ad6-b98730fd964c", "symbol": "EDT", "name": "Spectral Medical Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.183, "architecture_energy": 24.266, "architecture_maturity": 21.71, "architecture_confidence": 52.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.87, "rotation_up": 53.26, "upward_expansion": 66.23, "deceleration": 59.63, "rotation_down": 16.2, "downward_expansion": 11.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.39, 1.377455, 1.383048, 1.375914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.41, "trend_reference": 1.362333, "distance_from_trend": 0.034989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.838654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.681266, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.733445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084615, "excess_performance": -0.035806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.681266, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.619459, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 414959, "relative_activity": 1.838373, "balance": 1.619459, "dry_up": 1.179047, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04419, "annualized_volatility": 0.259552, "from_high_reference": -0.233696, "from_low_reference": 0.740741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.362333, "fair_value_reference": 0.838654, "structural_low": 1.21, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026403, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.017269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.514286, "worst_return": -0.284314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.030021, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.559322, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084615, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035806, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.737705, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.213655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.136241, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.656566, "worst_return": -0.313725, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.341463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.183007, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06015, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.325, "volume": 328903, "typical_volume": 228238.3, "trend": 0.309833, "fair_value": 0.38, "relative_strength": -5.438791, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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318442, "typical_volume": 209070.95, "trend": 1.363333, "fair_value": 0.825, "relative_strength": -10.351084, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.068396, "energy": 5.74268, "activity_lines": [ 1.366667, 1.368545, 1.379143, 1.371204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.39, "volume": 189761, "typical_volume": 213040.75, "trend": 1.363667, "fair_value": 0.831795, "relative_strength": -7.699986, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.703907, "energy": 14.594851, "activity_lines": [ 1.376, 1.370909, 1.380381, 1.372925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.41, "volume": 414959, "typical_volume": 225720.8, "trend": 1.362333, "fair_value": 0.838654, "relative_strength": -9.733445, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.183046, "energy": 24.2659, "activity_lines": [ 1.39, 1.377455, 1.383048, 1.375914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }