{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c811804-2b63-4d6d-aa08-be8c136ef2c8", "symbol": "MGIH", "name": "Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.454, "architecture_energy": 21.431, "architecture_maturity": 31.921, "architecture_confidence": 64.143, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.68, "rotation_up": 43.34, "upward_expansion": 72.72, "deceleration": 58.18, "rotation_down": 20.26, "downward_expansion": 4.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.54106, 1.529491, 1.508969, 1.497627 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.525, "trend_reference": 1.489233, "distance_from_trend": 0.024017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.56647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026473, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.274625, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.020067, "excess_performance": -0.167387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062597, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.782313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 677336, "relative_activity": 2.600352, "balance": 9.782313, "dry_up": 2.198469, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181175, "annualized_volatility": 0.431168, "from_high_reference": -0.684917, "from_low_reference": 0.37375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.489233, "fair_value_reference": 1.56647, "structural_low": 1.2501, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025108, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003867, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.236776, "worst_return": -0.177515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013772, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.487342, "worst_return": -0.139394, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.106655, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.196818, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.042424, "worst_return": -0.170886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 278734, "typical_volume": 224243.15, "trend": 1.478733, "fair_value": 1.572061, "relative_strength": -7.925081, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.703521, "energy": 24.462004, "activity_lines": [ 1.547427, 1.526225, 1.503669, 1.493055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.51, "volume": 143122, "typical_volume": 229839.75, "trend": 1.4854, "fair_value": 1.570156, "relative_strength": -14.303349, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.905986, "energy": 22.765071, "activity_lines": [ 1.54208, 1.527313, 1.505826, 1.495072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.525, "volume": 677336, "typical_volume": 260478.6, "trend": 1.489233, "fair_value": 1.56647, "relative_strength": -17.274625, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.453708, "energy": 21.430541, "activity_lines": [ 1.54106, 1.529491, 1.508969, 1.497627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }