{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c8312b2-20e5-466c-a7d8-1082504e0f04", "symbol": "002380", "name": "Nanjing Sciyon Wisdom Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.656, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.082, "architecture_energy": 62.265, "architecture_maturity": 17.737, "architecture_confidence": 64.915, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 16.61, "upward_expansion": 21.77, "deceleration": 43.39, "rotation_down": 71.58, "downward_expansion": 63.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.130667, 30.434364, 33.737796, 34.143336 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.0, "trend_reference": 33.986183, "distance_from_trend": -0.146712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.252164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.137003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004639, "excess_performance": -0.012038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.155324, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34122300, "relative_activity": 0.960252, "balance": 2.155324, "dry_up": 0.946172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17238, "annualized_volatility": 0.733734, "from_high_reference": -0.432041, "from_low_reference": 0.15612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.986183, "fair_value_reference": 23.252164, "structural_low": 25.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059471, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016222, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.234848, "worst_return": -0.101801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.037155, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199226, "worst_return": -0.249021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011951, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.112839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.760799, "worst_return": -0.171444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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19.953734, "activity_lines": [ 36.102, 38.040787, 37.239625, 35.898334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.870001, "volume": 24748835, "typical_volume": 40139886.85, "trend": 33.886971, "fair_value": 23.13501, "relative_strength": -5.926903, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.087357, "energy": 18.931076, "activity_lines": [ 34.495334, 36.810627, 36.822712, 35.779847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.32, "volume": 30019329, "typical_volume": 40573776.85, "trend": 33.873428, "fair_value": 23.155315, "relative_strength": -14.470832, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.035455, "energy": 44.282384, "activity_lines": [ 31.474667, 34.620649, 35.875013, 35.291655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.110001, "volume": 36547156, "typical_volume": 37969391.85, "trend": 33.893518, "fair_value": 23.17769, "relative_strength": -12.189022, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.915913, "energy": 59.332662, "activity_lines": [ 29.432001, 32.751091, 35.031219, 34.855305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.780001, "volume": 33799000, "typical_volume": 35550228.9, "trend": 33.922005, "fair_value": 23.202131, "relative_strength": -8.590549, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.477264, "energy": 64.737173, "activity_lines": [ 28.370667, 31.273819, 34.303302, 34.460884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.0, "volume": 34122300, "typical_volume": 35534718.9, "trend": 33.986183, "fair_value": 23.252164, "relative_strength": -9.137003, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.082144, "energy": 62.265082, "activity_lines": [ 28.130667, 30.434364, 33.737796, 34.143336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }