{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9c894385-342a-44a1-8017-35baf44d45d2",
    "symbol": "XGN",
    "name": "Exagen Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 50.378,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.118,
    "architecture_energy": 68.254,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.746,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.94,
        "rotation_up": 64.22,
        "upward_expansion": 81.55,
        "deceleration": 53.69,
        "rotation_down": 13.55,
        "downward_expansion": 12.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.316,
        4.956545,
        4.514238,
        4.17357
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 6.87,
    "trend_reference": 3.897,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.762895,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 4.233303,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.622846,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.02712,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.957265,
    "excess_performance": 0.769811,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.762895,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.180729,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.622846,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.900619,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030271,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.609391,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.957265,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.789572,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5009926,
      "relative_activity": 2.827871,
      "balance": 2.789572,
      "dry_up": 1.189467,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.133445,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.863247,
      "from_high_reference": -0.438267,
      "from_low_reference": 1.65251
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.897,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.233303,
      "structural_low": 2.59,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.075472,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033352,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.596491,
        "worst_return": -0.158392,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.085237,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.069259,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.196226,
        "worst_return": -0.551905,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.264516,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077801,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.607547,
        "worst_return": -0.44021,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 1.450623,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 1.193357,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 2.725806,
        "worst_return": 0.175439,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.3,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.673267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044586,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.54717,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.201511,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.107769,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.600515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.496678,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.119444,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.030837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.516556,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 2.69,
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        "typical_volume": 80817.35,
        "trend": 2.686173,
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        "relative_strength": -18.044995,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      {
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      },
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 4.154905,
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1711823.0,
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        "relative_strength": -40.647882,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.416735,
        "energy": 27.728673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1126971,
        "typical_volume": 1680556.25,
        "trend": 3.978,
        "fair_value": 4.178174,
        "relative_strength": -38.193168,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.326015,
        "energy": 20.293942,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.471333,
          4.494182,
          4.060714,
          3.896602
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.68,
        "volume": 1426272,
        "typical_volume": 1664529.7,
        "trend": 3.929667,
        "fair_value": 4.192726,
        "relative_strength": -32.270744,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.55723,
        "energy": 30.60414,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.531333,
          4.538909,
          4.153857,
          3.941892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.53,
        "volume": 865987,
        "typical_volume": 1608472.35,
        "trend": 3.879333,
        "fair_value": 4.205674,
        "relative_strength": -33.655984,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.316219,
        "energy": 26.682476,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.532,
          4.537455,
          4.226095,
          3.980624
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.87,
        "volume": 5009926,
        "typical_volume": 1771624.7,
        "trend": 3.897,
        "fair_value": 4.233303,
        "relative_strength": -3.02712,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.118314,
        "energy": 68.25361,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.316,
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          4.514238,
          4.17357
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}