{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c8bf89d-b19f-4c4e-b174-6c5a81158ec1", "symbol": "NVX", "name": "Novonix Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.443, "architecture_energy": 69.716, "architecture_maturity": 82.657, "architecture_confidence": 92.588, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 19.54, "upward_expansion": 14.22, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 69.65, "downward_expansion": 92.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.41044, 0.441398, 0.53072, 0.596808 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.407, "trend_reference": 0.702937, "distance_from_trend": -0.421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.511353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.730705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.038844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.552747, "excess_performance": -0.740201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.730705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.650388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.552747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 742005, "relative_activity": 0.506826, "balance": 0.735699, "dry_up": 0.503901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229321, "annualized_volatility": 0.719015, "from_high_reference": -0.89456, "from_low_reference": 0.102981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.702937, "fair_value_reference": 1.511353, "structural_low": 0.369, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.041885, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.06458, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.557589, "worst_return": -0.389262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012866, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.100725, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.286486, "worst_return": -0.496644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.162162, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.222534, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.075188, "worst_return": -0.683221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 1710078.0, "trend": 0.78475, "fair_value": 1.552215, "relative_strength": -65.18691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.969057, "energy": 86.811401, "activity_lines": [ 0.44864, 0.51492, 0.594788, 0.665861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4116, "volume": 539155, "typical_volume": 1602001.95, "trend": 0.762137, "fair_value": 1.538187, "relative_strength": -63.948465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.191515, "energy": 85.411994, "activity_lines": [ 0.4316, 0.487149, 0.572119, 0.641787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.397, "volume": 785240, "typical_volume": 1534034.25, "trend": 0.739037, "fair_value": 1.524385, "relative_strength": -64.791124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.029934, "energy": 78.848078, "activity_lines": [ 0.417613, 0.460695, 0.550031, 0.61823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.407, "volume": 742005, "typical_volume": 1464021.85, "trend": 0.702937, "fair_value": 1.511353, "relative_strength": -65.038844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.44304, "energy": 69.715682, "activity_lines": [ 0.41044, 0.441398, 0.53072, 0.596808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }