{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c8c754c-ea88-41b2-816c-37eb0250eccb", "symbol": "5512", "name": "Rich Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.579, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.539, "architecture_energy": 10.456, "architecture_maturity": 19.364, "architecture_confidence": 38.571, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.4, "rotation_up": 20.43, "upward_expansion": 11.86, "deceleration": 64.38, "rotation_down": 40.99, "downward_expansion": 37.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 7.83, 7.720286, 7.723548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.71, "trend_reference": 7.76, "distance_from_trend": -0.006443, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.163927, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.153712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028967, "excess_performance": -0.470339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006443, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136658, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.507777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3148925, "relative_activity": 0.509333, "balance": 1.507777, "dry_up": 0.552925, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056969, "annualized_volatility": 0.253031, "from_high_reference": -0.149222, "from_low_reference": 0.154192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.76, "fair_value_reference": 9.163927, "structural_low": 6.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.011099, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00044, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071111, "worst_return": -0.139031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016921, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.485507, "worst_return": -0.112402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034738, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018904, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.350932, "worst_return": -0.119531, 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"activity_lines": [ 7.966667, 7.859818, 7.695714, 7.729591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.88, "volume": 3453764, "typical_volume": 6406112.9, "trend": 7.780333, "fair_value": 9.187896, "relative_strength": -30.371446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.557756, "energy": 18.818915, "activity_lines": [ 7.934, 7.901273, 7.711905, 7.735656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.7, "volume": 4864703, "typical_volume": 6310693.65, "trend": 7.771, "fair_value": 9.179981, "relative_strength": -30.113027, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.448522, "energy": 4.838331, "activity_lines": [ 7.846, 7.889455, 7.711857, 7.730473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.72, "volume": 2206329, "typical_volume": 6201315.9, "trend": 7.766333, "fair_value": 9.171897, "relative_strength": -30.664207, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.057246, "energy": 7.768308, "activity_lines": [ 7.778, 7.867091, 7.715952, 7.727183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.71, "volume": 3148925, "typical_volume": 6182450.95, "trend": 7.76, "fair_value": 9.163927, "relative_strength": -32.153712, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.539066, "energy": 10.455854, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 7.83, 7.720286, 7.723548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }