{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c90b52a-2dd4-41a0-9e66-a644acc53528", "symbol": "G1DS34", "name": "GDS Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.836, "architecture_energy": 46.141, "architecture_maturity": 84.347, "architecture_confidence": 61.554, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.34, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 37.43, "downward_expansion": 65.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.312001, 16.182909, 17.402953, 18.560602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.280001, "trend_reference": 20.069667, "distance_from_trend": -0.188826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.947372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.055663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327273, "excess_performance": -0.270224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.621046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3893, "relative_activity": 2.833643, "balance": 0.812989, "dry_up": 1.672854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082215, "annualized_volatility": 0.538178, "from_high_reference": -0.34984, "from_low_reference": 0.110505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.069667, "fair_value_reference": 12.947372, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.019338, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.043199, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.330334, "worst_return": -0.360723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08524, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109476, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.612121, "worst_return": -0.472112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.257138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.278053, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.144578, "worst_return": -0.422628, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01726, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073998, "active": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.145647, "energy": 92.753762, "activity_lines": [ 15.778667, 17.025091, 18.930619, 19.901097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 1048, "typical_volume": 1602.9, "trend": 20.633, "fair_value": 12.683077, "relative_strength": -22.811506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.190887, "energy": 86.602395, "activity_lines": [ 15.989333, 16.732363, 18.616095, 19.648086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.040001, "volume": 1971, "typical_volume": 1388.7, "trend": 20.510334, "fair_value": 12.749615, "relative_strength": -23.761841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.513529, "energy": 67.600402, "activity_lines": [ 15.985333, 16.405818, 18.26081, 19.351764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.08, "volume": 1944, "typical_volume": 1328.0, "trend": 20.399, "fair_value": 12.811474, "relative_strength": -22.967956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.843361, "energy": 63.09835, "activity_lines": [ 16.037333, 16.204727, 17.932667, 19.065936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.540001, "volume": 1385, "typical_volume": 1243.7, "trend": 20.253667, "fair_value": 12.877949, "relative_strength": -21.936602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.175613, "energy": 50.639006, "activity_lines": [ 16.269334, 16.209091, 17.665476, 18.816968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 3893, "typical_volume": 1373.85, "trend": 20.069667, "fair_value": 12.947372, "relative_strength": -20.055663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.835813, "energy": 46.141019, "activity_lines": [ 16.312001, 16.182909, 17.402953, 18.560602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }