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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.238, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.18, "architecture_energy": 38.86, "architecture_maturity": 31.077, "architecture_confidence": 74.208, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.5, "rotation_up": 54.34, "upward_expansion": 79.6, "deceleration": 51.71, "rotation_down": 16.1, "downward_expansion": 6.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.999999, 31.870908, 31.709069, 31.575716 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.799999, "trend_reference": 31.377696, "distance_from_trend": 0.013459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.048569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.895971, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038808, "excess_performance": -0.402564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013459, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038808, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.158442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57062, "relative_activity": 0.377419, "balance": 1.158442, "dry_up": 0.456975, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024457, "annualized_volatility": 0.077897, "from_high_reference": -0.026034, "from_low_reference": 0.063155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.377696, "fair_value_reference": 29.048569, "structural_low": 30.425075, 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"relative_strength": -26.765764, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.95618, "energy": 32.269567, "activity_lines": [ 31.74, 31.659959, 31.54921, 31.430649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.75, "volume": 74035, "typical_volume": 150188.45, "trend": 31.292083, "fair_value": 28.970733, "relative_strength": -25.178103, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.64862, "energy": 29.464966, "activity_lines": [ 31.756667, 31.68911, 31.578987, 31.462338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 70243, "typical_volume": 151243.65, "trend": 31.350559, "fair_value": 29.01208, "relative_strength": -24.280907, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.884398, "energy": 53.274193, "activity_lines": [ 32.039999, 31.863161, 31.685632, 31.54672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 57062, "typical_volume": 151189.95, "trend": 31.377696, "fair_value": 29.048569, "relative_strength": -27.895971, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.180291, "energy": 38.85989, "activity_lines": [ 31.999999, 31.870908, 31.709069, 31.575716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }