{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c9ad0cb-2056-4ccd-8973-61bf6df66cad", "symbol": "OIL", "name": "Oil India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.752, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.882, "architecture_energy": 21.54, "architecture_maturity": 61.058, "architecture_confidence": 46.584, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.19, "rotation_up": 33.52, "upward_expansion": 20.99, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 20.31, "downward_expansion": 52.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 446.219999, 437.484545, 448.995713, 456.182615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 442.799988, "trend_reference": 462.454918, "distance_from_trend": -0.042501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 401.254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.544817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095883, "excess_performance": -0.052174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015448, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.742986, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14207809, "relative_activity": 0.782275, "balance": 2.742986, "dry_up": 0.898565, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063034, "annualized_volatility": 0.368306, "from_high_reference": -0.166102, "from_low_reference": 0.182795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 462.454918, "fair_value_reference": 401.254, "structural_low": 406.799988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044972, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011718, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.10558, "worst_return": -0.060306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014798, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047634, "worst_return": -0.15944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.250981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.186211, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264456, "worst_return": -0.187635, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 19.170489, "activity_lines": [ 444.670005, 436.848184, 450.656667, 457.388143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 442.799988, "volume": 14207809, "typical_volume": 18162170.25, "trend": 462.454918, "fair_value": 401.254, "relative_strength": 1.544817, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.88153, "energy": 21.540182, "activity_lines": [ 446.219999, 437.484545, 448.995713, 456.182615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }