{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9c9f0a3f-aeeb-4e60-a4aa-db383ba2b4d7", "symbol": "TXN", "name": "Texas Instruments Incorporated", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.93, "architecture_energy": 29.03, "architecture_maturity": 66.112, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.11, "rotation_up": 21.63, "upward_expansion": 56.86, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 35.74, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 4911.817155, 5043.108398, 5029.466449, 4760.298133 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4791.0, "trend_reference": 4399.868099, "distance_from_trend": 0.088896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3553.211257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348358, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.020318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.222714, "excess_performance": 0.277381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200203, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.222714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.593541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.593541, "dry_up": 0.312586, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05828, "annualized_volatility": 0.437551, "from_high_reference": -0.144464, "from_low_reference": 0.6722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4399.868099, "fair_value_reference": 3553.211257, "structural_low": 3325.042725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04779, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.040637, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.35146, "worst_return": -0.082703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003694, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.679978, "worst_return": -0.156658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016829, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.141787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130496, "worst_return": -0.007103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122779, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002884, "active": false 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4913.570801, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 1118.75, "trend": 4297.31438, "fair_value": 3527.865618, "relative_strength": 25.116095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.772473, "energy": 36.246844, "activity_lines": [ 5095.517773, 5166.908336, 5003.240984, 4694.452706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4881.510254, "volume": 885, "typical_volume": 1095.8, "trend": 4354.591748, "fair_value": 3540.593506, "relative_strength": 22.761267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.323278, "energy": 28.386539, "activity_lines": [ 5004.854232, 5110.550302, 5024.150167, 4732.142762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4791.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1093.3, "trend": 4399.868099, "fair_value": 3553.211257, "relative_strength": 20.020318, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.930243, "energy": 29.030059, "activity_lines": [ 4911.817155, 5043.108398, 5029.466449, 4760.298133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }