{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ca7a076-8717-4751-83b2-d39504b73d0b", "symbol": "SCP", "name": "Scalare Partners Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.094, "architecture_energy": 51.754, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.413, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.66, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 21.17, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 41.84, "downward_expansion": 68.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.146666, 3.065817, 3.412475, 3.902193 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.6, "trend_reference": 4.494666, "distance_from_trend": -0.421537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.613053, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.867435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.308254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.458333, "excess_performance": -0.522039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.421537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191607, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.867435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054701, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.523083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.458333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.210711, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4697, "relative_activity": 2.610532, "balance": 0.210711, "dry_up": 0.801167, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164497, "annualized_volatility": 1.006204, "from_high_reference": -0.701149, "from_low_reference": 0.056911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.494666, "fair_value_reference": 19.613053, "structural_low": 2.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.447368, "median_excess_return": -0.033495, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.660326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.162756, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.155599, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.757376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.360346, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.322229, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.123596, "worst_return": -0.725026, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.628457, "energy": 60.227747, "activity_lines": [ 3.107999, 3.110181, 3.616856, 4.101934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.599999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1606.8, "trend": 4.607999, "fair_value": 19.834171, "relative_strength": -32.883555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.121129, "energy": 41.237849, "activity_lines": [ 3.323999, 3.172363, 3.555142, 4.031741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.6, "volume": 4697, "typical_volume": 1799.25, "trend": 4.494666, "fair_value": 19.613053, "relative_strength": -52.308254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.093998, "energy": 51.75433, "activity_lines": [ 3.146666, 3.065817, 3.412475, 3.902193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }