{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cb3afd7-5bdb-4a30-ba41-a808b79ca607", "symbol": "600097", "name": "Shanghai Kaichuang Marine International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.521, "architecture_energy": 58.796, "architecture_maturity": 95.741, "architecture_confidence": 95.884, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.43, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 52.04, "downward_expansion": 84.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.039333, 8.088545, 8.652476, 9.278027 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.3, "trend_reference": 10.126053, "distance_from_trend": -0.180332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.624249, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.917881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31778, "excess_performance": -0.274576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.309033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16077502, "relative_activity": 1.15987, "balance": 0.309033, "dry_up": 1.27672, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073843, "annualized_volatility": 0.27106, "from_high_reference": -0.466202, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.126053, "fair_value_reference": 9.624249, "structural_low": 7.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.027228, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.014706, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.431673, "worst_return": -0.183765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.077419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037276, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230675, "worst_return": -0.238209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.119622, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.036682, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.246196, "worst_return": -0.055311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 64.353754, "activity_lines": [ 7.936, 8.087091, 8.75396, 9.402152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3, "volume": 16077502, "typical_volume": 13861473.8, "trend": 10.126053, "fair_value": 9.624249, "relative_strength": -21.917881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.52071, "energy": 58.79555, "activity_lines": [ 8.039333, 8.088545, 8.652476, 9.278027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }