{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cb499eb-9495-4ebc-8a31-cb22212383e7", "symbol": "NKE", "name": "Nike Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.017, "architecture_energy": 42.976, "architecture_maturity": 64.7, "architecture_confidence": 88.146, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.11, "rotation_up": 22.07, "upward_expansion": 5.36, "deceleration": 54.85, "rotation_down": 50.8, "downward_expansion": 76.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.155333, 42.734909, 43.288447, 45.309343 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.7, "trend_reference": 49.276884, "distance_from_trend": -0.153761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.710133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.42649, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.902358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.337375, "excess_performance": -0.463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115109, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.42649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029543, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.337375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111413907, "relative_activity": 0.973322, "balance": 1.226124, "dry_up": 0.800817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076918, "annualized_volatility": 0.381266, "from_high_reference": -0.465477, "from_low_reference": 0.0425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.276884, "fair_value_reference": 72.710133, "structural_low": 40.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.012464, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.018722, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.196699, "worst_return": -0.218747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.101994, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.08039, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.363279, "worst_return": -0.198829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.099487, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.147674, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.116302, "worst_return": -0.218022, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 41.7, "volume": 87107285, "typical_volume": 112070490.0, "trend": 50.736619, "fair_value": 73.481649, "relative_strength": -33.767482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.851255, "energy": 41.574071, "activity_lines": [ 43.038667, 43.445577, 43.854442, 46.43043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.71, "volume": 95235928, "typical_volume": 112482601.55, "trend": 50.050238, "fair_value": 73.093755, "relative_strength": -33.536002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.620702, "energy": 42.097843, "activity_lines": [ 42.630667, 43.067836, 43.543844, 45.848068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.7, "volume": 111413907, "typical_volume": 114467709.85, "trend": 49.276884, "fair_value": 72.710133, "relative_strength": -34.902358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.017277, "energy": 42.976272, "activity_lines": [ 42.155333, 42.734909, 43.288447, 45.309343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }