{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cb5e5cd-53f3-4c57-bf13-129107c97fa9", "symbol": "PBW", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR WILDERHILL CLEAN ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.947, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.428, "architecture_energy": 47.842, "architecture_maturity": 5.965, "architecture_confidence": 73.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.26, "rotation_up": 14.8, "upward_expansion": 24.2, "deceleration": 51.0, "rotation_down": 67.61, "downward_expansion": 53.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.298, 34.727285, 36.817435, 36.344505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.81, "trend_reference": 35.686508, "distance_from_trend": -0.024561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.569903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.373575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017647, "excess_performance": -0.107978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.258298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3667539, "relative_activity": 0.895524, "balance": 1.258298, "dry_up": 1.172269, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112832, "annualized_volatility": 0.361295, "from_high_reference": -0.258529, "from_low_reference": 0.489763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.686508, "fair_value_reference": 25.569903, "structural_low": 29.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.087699, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.087699, "worst_return": -0.087699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016515, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016515, "worst_return": 0.016515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.442609, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.350504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442609, "worst_return": 0.442609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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35.504669, 37.68849, 37.918437, 36.884123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.66, "volume": 4330561, "typical_volume": 3982511.15, "trend": 35.646355, "fair_value": 25.619355, "relative_strength": -10.340738, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.432726, "energy": 39.036834, "activity_lines": [ 33.835333, 36.304246, 37.439678, 36.626146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.11, "volume": 7193248, "typical_volume": 4190313.5, "trend": 35.639081, "fair_value": 25.579509, "relative_strength": -10.308647, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.314978, "energy": 51.399137, "activity_lines": [ 32.958667, 35.173479, 36.999822, 36.397994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.81, "volume": 3667539, "typical_volume": 4095410.9, "trend": 35.686508, "fair_value": 25.569903, "relative_strength": -6.373575, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.42846, "energy": 47.841519, "activity_lines": [ 33.298, 34.727285, 36.817435, 36.344505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }