{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cbad712-99be-4367-bdda-dea8495ae143", "symbol": "OCC", "name": "Optical Cable Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.266, "architecture_energy": 17.747, "architecture_maturity": 61.816, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.97, "rotation_up": 24.31, "upward_expansion": 54.04, "deceleration": 90.27, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 17.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.279333, 16.150727, 15.342881, 13.695215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.25, "trend_reference": 11.2515, "distance_from_trend": 0.444252, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.24496, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.098212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 53.220785, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.173828, "excess_performance": 1.986374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.444252, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.444568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.098212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.66397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.532208, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191754, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.173828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.709299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1088082, "relative_activity": 0.406495, "balance": 2.709299, "dry_up": 0.362101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.304426, "annualized_volatility": 1.164534, "from_high_reference": -0.419226, "from_low_reference": 3.042289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.2515, "fair_value_reference": 5.24496, "structural_low": 5.235, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.030684, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.125874, "worst_return": -0.432298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06295, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.187931, "worst_return": -0.311828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153033, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.072931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.570545, "worst_return": -0.214452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.39292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.405914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078775, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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16.831273, 14.170238, 12.078215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.81, "volume": 1672954, "typical_volume": 2649546.55, "trend": 9.847167, "fair_value": 4.952774, "relative_strength": 58.591836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.973577, "energy": 42.70212, "activity_lines": [ 17.724667, 16.949, 14.548786, 12.477387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.73, "volume": 964070, "typical_volume": 2675935.25, "trend": 10.1725, "fair_value": 5.024121, "relative_strength": 51.848995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.80562, "energy": 24.194468, "activity_lines": [ 16.268667, 16.782909, 14.777143, 12.792409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.41, "volume": 789870, "typical_volume": 2692085.15, "trend": 10.5055, "fair_value": 5.092397, "relative_strength": 48.456261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.642647, "energy": 20.307796, "activity_lines": [ 15.251333, 16.478818, 14.931405, 13.065796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.86, "volume": 1034979, "typical_volume": 2654263.0, "trend": 10.8485, "fair_value": 5.163807, "relative_strength": 49.616952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.268631, "energy": 19.134197, "activity_lines": [ 14.916667, 16.208727, 15.088714, 13.346731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.25, "volume": 1088082, "typical_volume": 2676742.25, "trend": 11.2515, "fair_value": 5.24496, "relative_strength": 53.220785, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.266012, "energy": 17.746811, "activity_lines": [ 15.279333, 16.150727, 15.342881, 13.695215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }