{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cbd3c60-a39d-4ac0-a7cc-0eb0f7c65145", "symbol": "INO-UN", "name": "Inovalis Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.336, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.668, "architecture_energy": 32.638, "architecture_maturity": 56.412, "architecture_confidence": 69.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.19, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 62.93, "rotation_down": 44.59, "downward_expansion": 71.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.771333, 0.769091, 0.781524, 0.816731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.82, "trend_reference": 0.881333, "distance_from_trend": -0.069592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.252515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.345317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.174797, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293103, "excess_performance": -0.413525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.345317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049211, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.142142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141500, "relative_activity": 1.149939, "balance": 1.142142, "dry_up": 1.090207, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069418, "annualized_volatility": 0.322692, "from_high_reference": -0.344, "from_low_reference": 0.281094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.881333, "fair_value_reference": 1.252515, "structural_low": 0.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.007356, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.019777, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.310984, "worst_return": -0.472272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.089798, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.063994, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.386941, "worst_return": -0.402875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125991, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.19606, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.386941, "worst_return": -0.551606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076655, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.71, "volume": 170100, "typical_volume": 119605.0, "trend": 0.891667, "fair_value": 1.29364, "relative_strength": -24.509026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.791702, "energy": 73.680952, "activity_lines": [ 0.734667, 0.756182, 0.781714, 0.827591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.79, "volume": 159700, "typical_volume": 120400.0, "trend": 0.886667, "fair_value": 1.272697, "relative_strength": -15.085123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.493837, "energy": 49.520246, "activity_lines": [ 0.748, 0.759818, 0.77981, 0.821032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.82, "volume": 141500, "typical_volume": 123050.0, "trend": 0.881333, "fair_value": 1.252515, "relative_strength": -14.174797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.667906, "energy": 32.6376, "activity_lines": [ 0.771333, 0.769091, 0.781524, 0.816731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }