{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cc571b2-335d-4dd6-b988-601cc87c469a", "symbol": "MLL", "name": "M\u00fcller - Die lila Logistik SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.938, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.597, "architecture_energy": 6.808, "architecture_maturity": 50.328, "architecture_confidence": 54.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.8, "rotation_up": 32.09, "upward_expansion": 31.56, "deceleration": 45.1, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 49.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.63659, 4.634786, 4.658785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.8, "trend_reference": 4.736667, "distance_from_trend": 0.013371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.280081, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.381811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02834, "excess_performance": -0.09298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013371, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.773909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1259, "relative_activity": 0.815203, "balance": 1.773909, "dry_up": 0.673724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024859, "annualized_volatility": 0.163513, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.126761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.736667, "fair_value_reference": 5.280081, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.006199, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.007766, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.407079, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.00954, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.322034, "worst_return": -0.090566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077424, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009512, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.278689, "worst_return": -0.061947, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.577758, "energy": 32.270443, "activity_lines": [ 4.60629, 4.617908, 4.634119, 4.687688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.58, "volume": 280, "typical_volume": 1669.0, "trend": 4.759667, "fair_value": 5.296274, "relative_strength": -5.736622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.15072, "energy": 47.57513, "activity_lines": [ 4.592457, 4.609942, 4.627119, 4.675237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.48, "volume": 1358, "typical_volume": 1507.95, "trend": 4.740667, "fair_value": 5.288885, "relative_strength": -8.713689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.485856, "energy": 66.41858, "activity_lines": [ 4.547333, 4.583647, 4.611547, 4.657194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 1265, "typical_volume": 1571.2, "trend": 4.734667, "fair_value": 5.282907, "relative_strength": -6.052868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.723002, "energy": 29.554783, "activity_lines": [ 4.592, 4.60184, 4.618262, 4.65457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.8, "volume": 1259, "typical_volume": 1544.4, "trend": 4.736667, "fair_value": 5.280081, "relative_strength": -6.381811, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.596604, "energy": 6.808459, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.63659, 4.634786, 4.658785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }