{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cc9ff76-ea18-4a35-a51d-123a8368100e", "symbol": "300590", "name": "Queclink Wireless Solutions Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.894, "architecture_energy": 62.995, "architecture_maturity": 18.82, "architecture_confidence": 80.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.17, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 31.03, "deceleration": 46.66, "rotation_down": 68.65, "downward_expansion": 53.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.873333, 12.092727, 13.047987, 13.001023 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.18, "trend_reference": 12.928575, "distance_from_trend": -0.135249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.118658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.836472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104951, "excess_performance": -0.11235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.813721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108793754, "relative_activity": 1.240711, "balance": 0.813721, "dry_up": 1.528367, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138922, "annualized_volatility": 0.624332, "from_high_reference": -0.30945, "from_low_reference": 0.209957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.928575, "fair_value_reference": 12.118658, "structural_low": 9.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036286, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00127, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.370594, "worst_return": -0.333477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071546, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.008594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.53575, "worst_return": -0.126699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025316, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049577, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.618328, "worst_return": -0.306998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation 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13.324667, 13.919865, 13.855707, 13.507401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.82, "volume": 129051703, "typical_volume": 79787925.95, "trend": 13.048609, "fair_value": 12.129765, "relative_strength": -23.540532, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.813055, "energy": 43.295652, "activity_lines": [ 11.960667, 13.109091, 13.518252, 13.29353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.31, "volume": 102985182, "typical_volume": 83390318.2, "trend": 12.975249, "fair_value": 12.118896, "relative_strength": -17.884578, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.235207, "energy": 63.370891, "activity_lines": [ 11.146, 12.478, 13.23801, 13.116846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.18, "volume": 108793754, "typical_volume": 87686649.75, "trend": 12.928575, "fair_value": 12.118658, "relative_strength": -14.836472, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.89374, "energy": 62.994639, "activity_lines": [ 10.873333, 12.092727, 13.047987, 13.001023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }