{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cd0988e-5f1e-43c3-a9d0-80e8d80b1572", "symbol": "BFH", "name": "Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.219, "architecture_energy": 60.6, "architecture_maturity": 55.763, "architecture_confidence": 95.228, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 57.73, "upward_expansion": 81.26, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 21.99, "downward_expansion": 10.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.462, 103.679455, 98.24046, 92.870479 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 108.32, "trend_reference": 86.095422, "distance_from_trend": 0.258139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.663466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.94598, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.703746, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.369951, "excess_performance": 0.244326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.258139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.94598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.257037, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.369951, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.538268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1978382, "relative_activity": 0.608514, "balance": 2.538268, "dry_up": 0.956287, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067434, "annualized_volatility": 0.366333, "from_high_reference": -0.050824, "from_low_reference": 1.031327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.095422, "fair_value_reference": 55.663466, "structural_low": 68.353495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008206, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009669, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.259902, "worst_return": -0.226583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061977, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002652, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.361789, "worst_return": -0.338429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022957, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.305448, "worst_return": 0.001823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.31, "volume": 2747873, "typical_volume": 3253390.35, "trend": 83.103824, "fair_value": 54.348856, "relative_strength": 22.925955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.116548, "energy": 52.994489, "activity_lines": [ 100.275333, 98.856735, 93.199592, 88.457104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.31, "volume": 3879726, "typical_volume": 3302353.8, "trend": 84.040981, "fair_value": 54.76954, "relative_strength": 28.9175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.115588, "energy": 53.696549, "activity_lines": [ 101.265333, 100.340308, 94.794002, 89.825244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.07, "volume": 3830233, "typical_volume": 3344225.25, "trend": 85.147879, "fair_value": 55.215604, "relative_strength": 30.914432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.730079, "energy": 56.019301, "activity_lines": [ 103.382, 102.184364, 96.592765, 91.375504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.32, "volume": 1978382, "typical_volume": 3251170.55, "trend": 86.095422, "fair_value": 55.663466, "relative_strength": 25.703746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.219432, "energy": 60.599627, "activity_lines": [ 105.462, 103.679455, 98.24046, 92.870479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }