{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cd5269e-4894-4e7d-b486-87ad946819a4", "symbol": "603266", "name": "Ningbo Tianlong Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.953, "architecture_energy": 68.122, "architecture_maturity": 31.794, "architecture_confidence": 82.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 12.02, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 70.27, "downward_expansion": 87.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.415333, 16.050916, 17.29883, 18.038771 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.85, "trend_reference": 19.152314, "distance_from_trend": -0.172424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.281366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.022475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271599, "excess_performance": -0.228395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.178792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9311641, "relative_activity": 0.748372, "balance": 1.178792, "dry_up": 0.874197, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10331, "annualized_volatility": 0.425431, "from_high_reference": -0.434534, "from_low_reference": 0.113844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.152314, "fair_value_reference": 19.281366, "structural_low": 14.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.041086, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.009305, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.209615, "worst_return": -0.165209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024237, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.122758, "worst_return": -0.121374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081429, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.076779, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.57735, "worst_return": -0.046526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 11871346, "typical_volume": 13181013.1, "trend": 19.609647, "fair_value": 19.26414, "relative_strength": -27.171142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.498956, "energy": 73.738058, "activity_lines": [ 15.807333, 16.642495, 17.841157, 18.553758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.16, "volume": 8564630, "typical_volume": 12639277.5, "trend": 19.382647, "fair_value": 19.267899, "relative_strength": -23.845002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.774838, "energy": 78.54045, "activity_lines": [ 15.461333, 16.234022, 17.525351, 18.266684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 9311641, "typical_volume": 12442532.95, "trend": 19.152314, "fair_value": 19.281366, "relative_strength": -22.022475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.952621, "energy": 68.122288, "activity_lines": [ 15.415333, 16.050916, 17.29883, 18.038771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }