{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ce3addc-28bd-45ff-a269-d7254ee21f1e", "symbol": "2050", "name": "Savola Group Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.533, "architecture_energy": 23.863, "architecture_maturity": 64.783, "architecture_confidence": 73.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.03, "rotation_up": 15.37, "upward_expansion": 42.38, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 43.66, "downward_expansion": 34.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.287999, 27.216, 27.388793, 26.513446 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.299999, "trend_reference": 25.112425, "distance_from_trend": 0.04729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.954206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.469406, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230971, "excess_performance": 0.2628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04729, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048947, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230971, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.383621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5151612, "relative_activity": 1.161887, "balance": 2.383621, "dry_up": 0.865583, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058906, "annualized_volatility": 0.268776, "from_high_reference": -0.132013, "from_low_reference": 0.373029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.112425, "fair_value_reference": 25.954206, "structural_low": 19.154734, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048408, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.039173, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.061429, "worst_return": -0.143548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.124242, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.058299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015172, "worst_return": -0.170341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.174074, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.101536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.478621, "worst_return": -0.251223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060506, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094288, "active": false }, { "regime": 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29.337333, 28.897951, 27.278416, 25.89117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.459999, "volume": 4149856, "typical_volume": 4188911.25, "trend": 24.409213, "fair_value": 25.894361, "relative_strength": 16.76541, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.814564, "energy": 50.379795, "activity_lines": [ 28.668, 28.776727, 27.446661, 26.098443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.92, "volume": 3258244, "typical_volume": 4262014.35, "trend": 24.572204, "fair_value": 25.908515, "relative_strength": 15.123954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.706264, "energy": 33.72628, "activity_lines": [ 27.953333, 28.518545, 27.532492, 26.260429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.76, "volume": 3150420, "typical_volume": 4280428.85, "trend": 24.723066, "fair_value": 25.92465, "relative_strength": 9.239159, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.848328, "energy": 28.205212, "activity_lines": [ 27.044, 28.008363, 27.480058, 26.337061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.059999, "volume": 3791136, "typical_volume": 4218307.15, "trend": 24.902974, "fair_value": 25.938753, "relative_strength": 12.395919, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.900465, "energy": 26.622744, "activity_lines": [ 26.494666, 27.566181, 27.431209, 26.423315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 5151612, "typical_volume": 4433833.7, "trend": 25.112425, "fair_value": 25.954206, "relative_strength": 10.469406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.533239, "energy": 23.863009, "activity_lines": [ 26.287999, 27.216, 27.388793, 26.513446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }