{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ce3e9fd-f8f3-41f2-8aa6-8e378fb5b801", "symbol": "CPSS", "name": "Consumer Portfolio Services Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.041, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.052, "architecture_energy": 12.618, "architecture_maturity": 39.786, "architecture_confidence": 76.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.82, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 47.39, "deceleration": 82.41, "rotation_down": 28.04, "downward_expansion": 25.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.364667, 9.441455, 9.453381, 9.200591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 8.921333, "distance_from_trend": 0.062621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.12484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.475344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059218, "excess_performance": -0.128236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059218, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767946, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84411, "relative_activity": 0.723763, "balance": 0.767946, "dry_up": 0.901055, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070714, "annualized_volatility": 0.304661, "from_high_reference": -0.096282, "from_low_reference": 0.421929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.921333, "fair_value_reference": 9.12484, "structural_low": 7.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124008, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.067572, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206974, "worst_return": -0.050214, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.263584, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.178941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": 0.241453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.731044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.626411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.481319, "worst_return": -0.019231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.532357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.398334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.252747, "worst_return": -0.188034, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070628, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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9.303452, 9.067129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.26, "volume": 84344, "typical_volume": 115242.45, "trend": 8.911, "fair_value": 9.190224, "relative_strength": -7.958563, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.23205, "energy": 27.341895, "activity_lines": [ 9.586, 9.632545, 9.338619, 9.089774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.09, "volume": 127952, "typical_volume": 119098.85, "trend": 8.895, "fair_value": 9.166763, "relative_strength": -5.313502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.884081, "energy": 17.723944, "activity_lines": [ 9.406, 9.520364, 9.353095, 9.101323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.45, "volume": 87746, "typical_volume": 121191.6, "trend": 8.905667, "fair_value": 9.146571, "relative_strength": 0.357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.751596, "energy": 18.114789, "activity_lines": [ 9.375333, 9.493273, 9.397143, 9.137129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.32, "volume": 120244, "typical_volume": 121361.05, "trend": 8.910667, "fair_value": 9.132788, "relative_strength": -1.42864, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.054034, "energy": 17.837295, "activity_lines": [ 9.320667, 9.450545, 9.421905, 9.16386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 84411, "typical_volume": 116628.0, "trend": 8.921333, "fair_value": 9.12484, "relative_strength": -4.475344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.052075, "energy": 12.618326, "activity_lines": [ 9.364667, 9.441455, 9.453381, 9.200591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }