{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cf209ee-25f7-4cf6-8ff8-fac1d3d600f5", "symbol": "PZA", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II NATL AMT-FREE MUN BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.055, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.565, "architecture_energy": 25.488, "architecture_maturity": 19.212, "architecture_confidence": 58.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.67, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 17.4, "deceleration": 68.28, "rotation_down": 56.69, "downward_expansion": 37.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.016225, 23.152252, 23.16783, 23.142771 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.07, "trend_reference": 23.112238, "distance_from_trend": -0.001828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.231153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.182666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000171, "excess_performance": -0.125454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005743, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.489447, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5681851, "relative_activity": 0.903886, "balance": 1.489447, "dry_up": 1.14087, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011671, "annualized_volatility": 0.055912, "from_high_reference": -0.018456, "from_low_reference": 0.07671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.112238, "fair_value_reference": 22.231153, "structural_low": 22.56781, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00619, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.004299, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.028718, "worst_return": -0.042808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013568, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.037624, "worst_return": -0.088439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04294, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.072807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052463, "worst_return": -0.033183, 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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23.292216, 23.193867, 23.147946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.3742, "volume": 4142919, "typical_volume": 6766768.35, "trend": 23.093962, "fair_value": 22.188191, "relative_strength": -7.566762, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.735418, "energy": 63.477409, "activity_lines": [ 23.4059, 23.321286, 23.215986, 23.167415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.254588, "volume": 6770555, "typical_volume": 6706394.75, "trend": 23.109219, "fair_value": 22.198982, "relative_strength": -6.442652, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.372738, "energy": 44.440065, "activity_lines": [ 23.362707, 23.324057, 23.225999, 23.177778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.85, "volume": 9094229, "typical_volume": 6803633.3, "trend": 23.109694, "fair_value": 22.208, "relative_strength": -7.376101, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.082452, "energy": 8.04035, "activity_lines": [ 23.186841, 23.251974, 23.198079, 23.161054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.865, "volume": 7139540, "typical_volume": 6513190.6, "trend": 23.108698, "fair_value": 22.218803, "relative_strength": -8.082521, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.837249, "energy": 23.136966, "activity_lines": [ 23.048732, 23.183261, 23.172744, 23.145267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.07, "volume": 5681851, "typical_volume": 6286028.5, "trend": 23.112238, "fair_value": 22.231153, "relative_strength": -10.182666, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.564648, "energy": 25.488206, "activity_lines": [ 23.016225, 23.152252, 23.16783, 23.142771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }