{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cf3426a-2138-469d-a48e-6dbb5b5e495a", "symbol": "FOCUS", "name": "Focus Lighting and Fixtures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.472, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.092, "architecture_energy": 60.616, "architecture_maturity": 41.477, "architecture_confidence": 92.57, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 25.43, "deceleration": 52.5, "rotation_down": 73.96, "downward_expansion": 52.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.494001, 77.066728, 80.144524, 77.990021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.080002, "trend_reference": 75.030667, "distance_from_trend": -0.105966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.512167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.429165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.603709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036484, "excess_performance": 0.007225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105966, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.429165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193998, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202322, "relative_activity": 0.687061, "balance": 0.125499, "dry_up": 0.389861, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094285, "annualized_volatility": 0.450019, "from_high_reference": -0.335183, "from_low_reference": 0.175605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.030667, "fair_value_reference": 117.512167, "structural_low": 57.060001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007996, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.033494, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.776042, "worst_return": -0.241107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195631, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.213695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342293, "worst_return": -0.186599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.474055, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.423335, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.774145, "worst_return": -0.150636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.304541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.103686, "active": false }, { 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43.478055, "energy": 29.362207, "activity_lines": [ 85.096667, 86.467636, 82.533666, 78.824301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.0, "volume": 49833, "typical_volume": 352307.95, "trend": 75.487, "fair_value": 119.174944, "relative_strength": -0.76578, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.178034, "energy": 26.697217, "activity_lines": [ 82.371334, 85.096909, 82.659714, 79.059849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.230003, "volume": 94920, "typical_volume": 344907.05, "trend": 75.383, "fair_value": 118.65356, "relative_strength": -6.592767, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.409762, "energy": 22.729637, "activity_lines": [ 78.243335, 82.627455, 82.075857, 78.84972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.209999, "volume": 112141, "typical_volume": 315518.7, "trend": 75.232333, "fair_value": 118.104453, "relative_strength": -10.665385, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.09814, "energy": 40.113057, "activity_lines": [ 74.774001, 80.014546, 81.266143, 78.515978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.080002, "volume": 202322, "typical_volume": 294474.45, "trend": 75.030667, "fair_value": 117.512167, "relative_strength": -14.603709, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.091635, "energy": 60.615782, "activity_lines": [ 71.494001, 77.066728, 80.144524, 77.990021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }