{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9cf4ebe0-7f4b-4da9-9ff9-b9b3c22e55a6", "symbol": "TUR", "name": "Amundi MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.718, "architecture_energy": 31.618, "architecture_maturity": 8.023, "architecture_confidence": 64.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.82, "rotation_up": 19.6, "upward_expansion": 12.94, "deceleration": 48.34, "rotation_down": 54.79, "downward_expansion": 52.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.730999, 49.324999, 49.723619, 49.758903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.389999, "trend_reference": 49.645666, "distance_from_trend": -0.025293, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.511763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.29693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00309, "excess_performance": -0.173982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062701, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.103833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6621, "relative_activity": 0.523716, "balance": 0.103833, "dry_up": 1.197898, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047682, "annualized_volatility": 0.228568, "from_high_reference": -0.099721, "from_low_reference": 0.302557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.645666, "fair_value_reference": 44.511763, "structural_low": 46.009998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.061723, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.007746, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.259016, "worst_return": -0.097337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044549, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.119565, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.408811, "worst_return": -0.101847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.224258, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.17874, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.334631, "worst_return": 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44.223237, "relative_strength": -5.345695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.86896, "energy": 23.288109, "activity_lines": [ 50.355666, 49.911, 50.160072, 49.840946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.279999, "volume": 39638, "typical_volume": 14201.45, "trend": 49.023667, "fair_value": 44.318622, "relative_strength": -4.831158, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.748282, "energy": 11.170656, "activity_lines": [ 49.991999, 49.770091, 50.094, 49.875097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.049999, "volume": 4328, "typical_volume": 13388.1, "trend": 49.329333, "fair_value": 44.399872, "relative_strength": -3.135693, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.467689, "energy": 10.206043, "activity_lines": [ 49.864332, 49.840636, 50.102357, 49.941312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.639999, "volume": 9990, "typical_volume": 12986.8, "trend": 49.528, "fair_value": 44.459872, "relative_strength": -8.235275, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.145833, "energy": 20.614769, "activity_lines": [ 49.076666, 49.501545, 49.874547, 49.832322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.389999, "volume": 6621, "typical_volume": 12642.35, "trend": 49.645666, "fair_value": 44.511763, "relative_strength": -9.29693, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.718079, "energy": 31.618371, "activity_lines": [ 48.730999, 49.324999, 49.723619, 49.758903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }