{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d01ec4e-628c-4dcd-a0a4-06a997c1d391", "symbol": "CANEUA", "name": "UBS MSCI Canada UCITS ETF CAD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.467, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.2, "architecture_energy": 84.224, "architecture_maturity": 38.201, "architecture_confidence": 68.965, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 79.63, "upward_expansion": 92.91, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 13.21, "downward_expansion": 17.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.751332, 57.191636, 56.31019, 55.472498 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.599998, "trend_reference": 54.384668, "distance_from_trend": 0.07751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.854117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36743, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.379733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148807, "excess_performance": -0.022084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148807, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.008527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48797, "relative_activity": 2.182569, "balance": 5.008527, "dry_up": 1.43345, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015398, "annualized_volatility": 0.103522, "from_high_reference": -0.000682, "from_low_reference": 0.331725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.384668, "fair_value_reference": 42.854117, "structural_low": 50.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013001, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": 0.000553, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.085341, "worst_return": -0.064834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.045015, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.00504, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.118095, "worst_return": -0.120054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086011, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.016416, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.200581, "worst_return": -0.047415, "sufficient": true }, { 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54.727158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.57, "volume": 21513, "typical_volume": 20310.5, "trend": 53.936877, "fair_value": 42.537761, "relative_strength": -0.492737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.704368, "energy": 88.283722, "activity_lines": [ 57.125333, 56.637818, 55.743428, 54.976003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.189999, "volume": 19426, "typical_volume": 20976.75, "trend": 54.157452, "fair_value": 42.691847, "relative_strength": -1.870701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.370024, "energy": 76.110633, "activity_lines": [ 57.236666, 56.801272, 55.969238, 55.185882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 48797, "typical_volume": 22357.6, "trend": 54.384668, "fair_value": 42.854117, "relative_strength": -2.379733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.200323, "energy": 84.223851, "activity_lines": [ 57.751332, 57.191636, 56.31019, 55.472498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }