{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d07103c-79af-4590-9a36-7529c6501e10", "symbol": "HM-B", "name": "H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.698, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.815, "architecture_energy": 34.093, "architecture_maturity": 45.297, "architecture_confidence": 65.034, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.27, "rotation_up": 53.82, "upward_expansion": 37.95, "deceleration": 28.41, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 33.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.913332, 169.716363, 168.14797, 168.999862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 178.899994, "trend_reference": 170.849526, "distance_from_trend": 0.04712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.667999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.128718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026756, "excess_performance": -0.08825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062381, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8707311, "relative_activity": 1.037302, "balance": 0.940331, "dry_up": 0.930562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037344, "annualized_volatility": 0.233465, "from_high_reference": -0.059064, "from_low_reference": 0.362845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.849526, "fair_value_reference": 151.667999, "structural_low": 156.350006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001325, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.008953, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.237454, "worst_return": -0.114012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009486, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.34097, "worst_return": -0.142904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034464, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.048499, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.196935, "worst_return": -0.240926, 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-7.960882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.33139, "energy": 27.614583, "activity_lines": [ 165.94, 166.512727, 166.706378, 168.740568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 164.100006, "volume": 6522499, "typical_volume": 8565389.2, "trend": 170.958965, "fair_value": 151.283867, "relative_strength": -9.668718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.01001, "energy": 30.980565, "activity_lines": [ 165.076669, 166.178183, 166.359342, 168.263541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.199997, "volume": 8055506, "typical_volume": 8566000.2, "trend": 170.728059, "fair_value": 151.465501, "relative_strength": -5.667515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.87742, "energy": 4.53256, "activity_lines": [ 167.983334, 167.615455, 167.02407, 168.47264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.899994, "volume": 8707311, "typical_volume": 8394192.05, "trend": 170.849526, "fair_value": 151.667999, "relative_strength": -5.128718, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.815467, "energy": 34.093007, "activity_lines": [ 171.913332, 169.716363, 168.14797, 168.999862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }