{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d0b4860-35a7-454f-acf9-c245b8bdab3e", "symbol": "603089", "name": "ADD Industry (Zhejiang) CO., LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.179, "architecture_energy": 63.827, "architecture_maturity": 81.298, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.12, "rotation_down": 56.06, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.359333, 8.522727, 9.403537, 10.236679 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.71, "trend_reference": 11.349043, "distance_from_trend": -0.232534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.783659, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.409544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366545, "excess_performance": -0.323342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192296, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249146, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9703350, "relative_activity": 0.893701, "balance": 0.249146, "dry_up": 1.047365, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088955, "annualized_volatility": 0.34269, "from_high_reference": -0.518785, "from_low_reference": 0.129702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.349043, "fair_value_reference": 10.783659, "structural_low": 7.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001089, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.010142, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.15442, "worst_return": -0.145532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019691, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.265534, "worst_return": -0.327699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.161912, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.193347, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558533, "worst_return": -0.342541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.735333, 9.337352, 10.361467, 11.12054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.21, "volume": 13292114, "typical_volume": 11345716.05, "trend": 11.797376, "fair_value": 10.795915, "relative_strength": -34.599917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.079163, "energy": 85.133101, "activity_lines": [ 8.495333, 9.026774, 10.075222, 10.879139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.87, "volume": 12753311, "typical_volume": 11106540.1, "trend": 11.62971, "fair_value": 10.788288, "relative_strength": -37.366815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.332194, "energy": 80.462204, "activity_lines": [ 8.229333, 8.720479, 9.783549, 10.62576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.37, "volume": 9738258, "typical_volume": 11009032.35, "trend": 11.481043, "fair_value": 10.784184, "relative_strength": -33.021442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.569784, "energy": 71.410547, "activity_lines": [ 8.236667, 8.566031, 9.566067, 10.415456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.71, "volume": 9703350, "typical_volume": 10857492.05, "trend": 11.349043, "fair_value": 10.783659, "relative_strength": -31.409544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.17901, "energy": 63.82659, "activity_lines": [ 8.359333, 8.522727, 9.403537, 10.236679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }