{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d1ccfe7-c97f-453f-8266-611be4001f4f", "symbol": "603010", "name": "Zhejiang Wansheng Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.912, "architecture_energy": 41.216, "architecture_maturity": 14.269, "architecture_confidence": 69.837, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.45, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 20.7, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 67.5, "downward_expansion": 43.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.744667, 12.333636, 13.089786, 12.956972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 12.62189, "distance_from_trend": -0.136421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.504108, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.161726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101401, "excess_performance": -0.058198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054206, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47302572, "relative_activity": 0.76776, "balance": 0.578342, "dry_up": 1.119854, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184443, "annualized_volatility": 0.67417, "from_high_reference": -0.391401, "from_low_reference": 0.158342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.62189, "fair_value_reference": 10.504108, "structural_low": 9.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128911, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088454, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.122838, "worst_return": -0.134985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.274058, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.175457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.274058, "worst_return": -0.274058, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.240808, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.240808, "worst_return": -0.240808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 11.021276, "volume": 9051560, "typical_volume": 11351870.45, "trend": 11.492215, "fair_value": 16.247708, "relative_strength": -12.795408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.374346, "energy": 61.965402, "activity_lines": [ 15.566, 15.005099, 14.174008, 13.518793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.15, "volume": 101719349, "typical_volume": 60538358.35, "trend": 12.663557, "fair_value": 10.514518, "relative_strength": -0.921899, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.701564, "energy": 18.085046, "activity_lines": [ 14.246667, 14.350918, 13.956691, 13.422542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.92, "volume": 73618807, "typical_volume": 61427944.65, "trend": 12.643557, "fair_value": 10.510267, "relative_strength": -12.900726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.364363, "energy": 18.450032, "activity_lines": [ 12.656, 13.542912, 13.627897, 13.245539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.88, "volume": 53341140, "typical_volume": 61768040.85, "trend": 12.609224, "fair_value": 10.504262, "relative_strength": -13.512789, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.685652, "energy": 40.523536, "activity_lines": [ 11.306, 12.811632, 13.304865, 13.067245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 47302572, "typical_volume": 61611149.1, "trend": 12.62189, "fair_value": 10.504108, "relative_strength": -7.161726, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.912421, "energy": 41.216477, "activity_lines": [ 10.744667, 12.333636, 13.089786, 12.956972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }