{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d1e245f-1e28-4317-aa10-3809c5550b67", "symbol": "3707", "name": "Episil Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.679, "architecture_energy": 34.488, "architecture_maturity": 2.251, "architecture_confidence": 66.354, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.1, "rotation_up": 14.37, "upward_expansion": 18.02, "deceleration": 58.09, "rotation_down": 64.53, "downward_expansion": 45.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.173332, 67.443635, 71.562856, 69.177419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.599998, "trend_reference": 65.806666, "distance_from_trend": -0.003141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.954487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.448657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256705, "excess_performance": -0.184667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.221977, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25093438, "relative_activity": 0.319864, "balance": 1.221977, "dry_up": 0.37303, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210073, "annualized_volatility": 0.726895, "from_high_reference": -0.347264, "from_low_reference": 0.77058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.806666, "fair_value_reference": 57.954487, "structural_low": 48.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.1224, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.141026, "worst_return": 0.103774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.095917, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.167557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095917, "worst_return": 0.095917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.062883, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.062883, "worst_return": -0.062883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.278101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190729, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.323913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.515528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.252488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 75.0, "volume": 7779000, "typical_volume": 16828300.0, "trend": 84.698064, "fair_value": 85.726774, "relative_strength": -23.607658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.359499, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.5, "volume": 39919070, "typical_volume": 78278815.65, "trend": 65.163333, "fair_value": 58.358974, "relative_strength": -22.377744, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.18126, "energy": 12.705284, "activity_lines": [ 72.293332, 76.579999, 74.458095, 70.311182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.5, "volume": 28705297, "typical_volume": 78960709.95, "trend": 65.203333, "fair_value": 58.168589, "relative_strength": -32.627518, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.166573, "energy": 30.768033, "activity_lines": [ 64.306666, 71.727272, 72.825237, 69.494193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.099998, "volume": 23339506, "typical_volume": 78201504.65, "trend": 65.406666, "fair_value": 58.035897, "relative_strength": -24.618594, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.549497, "energy": 31.968206, "activity_lines": [ 60.793332, 68.819999, 71.934285, 69.164946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 65.599998, "volume": 25093438, "typical_volume": 78450338.6, "trend": 65.806666, "fair_value": 57.954487, "relative_strength": -20.448657, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.679369, "energy": 34.487678, "activity_lines": [ 61.173332, 67.443635, 71.562856, 69.177419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }