{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d1f07d7-e762-460c-9a17-0dd092c7b207", "symbol": "VVCO11", "name": "XTED - TRX Edificios Corporativos Fundo Invest Imobiliario FII Fund", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.546, "architecture_energy": 26.68, "architecture_maturity": 96.154, "architecture_confidence": 76.018, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.06, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 21.77, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 58.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.372, 10.075818, 10.629143, 11.59572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 12.781667, "distance_from_trend": -0.164428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.535769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.11974, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.287049, "excess_performance": -0.230001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74, "relative_activity": 0.000199, "balance": 0.740593, "dry_up": 0.002007, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114664, "annualized_volatility": 0.507651, "from_high_reference": -0.337469, "from_low_reference": 0.256471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.781667, "fair_value_reference": 13.535769, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.007911, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015252, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.390681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024311, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001726, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.159468, "worst_return": -0.234409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089494, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.126026, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13128, "worst_return": -0.100583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053493, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089494, "worst_return": 0.017493, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063328, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00292, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026712, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.234409, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.14, "volume": 102262, "typical_volume": 42780.95, "trend": 10.378465, "fair_value": 7.484126, "relative_strength": 34.867866, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.554291, "energy": 60.53696, "activity_lines": [ 9.624667, 9.65, 11.07719, 12.083892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.45, "volume": 2031, "typical_volume": 376173.55, "trend": 13.071, "fair_value": 13.557488, "relative_strength": -28.837538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.383783, "energy": 47.434092, "activity_lines": [ 9.883333, 9.761636, 10.89681, 11.905054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.52, "volume": 530, "typical_volume": 376154.0, "trend": 12.923667, "fair_value": 13.545705, "relative_strength": -29.201311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.165613, "energy": 38.703148, "activity_lines": [ 10.135333, 9.899818, 10.744714, 11.740473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 372733.05, "trend": 12.781667, "fair_value": 13.535769, "relative_strength": -25.11974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.545842, "energy": 26.679544, "activity_lines": [ 10.372, 10.075818, 10.629143, 11.59572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }