{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d23f885-5d43-44ca-96aa-9f641fe67dcf", "symbol": "LYGRD", "name": "Lyckeg\u00e5rd Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.793, "architecture_energy": 25.55, "architecture_maturity": 16.373, "architecture_confidence": 40.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.54, "rotation_up": 19.06, "upward_expansion": 20.47, "deceleration": 52.4, "rotation_down": 52.36, "downward_expansion": 43.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.848, 2.905091, 2.939476, 2.919892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 2.886333, "distance_from_trend": -0.002194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.990321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.447003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.486082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125, "excess_performance": 0.063506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03317, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.447003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40217, "relative_activity": 0.619064, "balance": 0.512619, "dry_up": 0.704149, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076122, "annualized_volatility": 0.390841, "from_high_reference": -0.297561, "from_low_reference": 0.461929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.886333, "fair_value_reference": 1.990321, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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6.466052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.451639, "energy": 23.004135, "activity_lines": [ 2.996, 2.995455, 2.932714, 2.892409 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 3.03, "volume": 284372, "typical_volume": 98005.2, "trend": 2.853, "fair_value": 1.97141, "relative_strength": 2.490619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.543322, "energy": 21.571161, "activity_lines": [ 3.012667, 3.004909, 2.947667, 2.90471 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.99, "volume": 4812, "typical_volume": 88850.05, "trend": 2.866, "fair_value": 1.973269, "relative_strength": 1.484947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.217458, "energy": 26.333114, "activity_lines": [ 3.010667, 3.003636, 2.957333, 2.913548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.04, "volume": 16716, "typical_volume": 84647.9, "trend": 2.872667, "fair_value": 1.976346, "relative_strength": -0.223663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.290242, "energy": 27.861825, "activity_lines": [ 3.027333, 3.009091, 2.969714, 2.924774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.96, "volume": 23809, "typical_volume": 73135.45, "trend": 2.879333, "fair_value": 1.980064, "relative_strength": -1.091175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.358867, "energy": 20.227041, "activity_lines": [ 3.004, 2.999818, 2.97219, 2.930409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 23866, "typical_volume": 66894.15, "trend": 2.884667, "fair_value": 1.983269, "relative_strength": -2.464618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.101863, "energy": 11.993975, "activity_lines": [ 2.964667, 2.982, 2.969905, 2.931742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8, "volume": 72085, "typical_volume": 66110.35, "trend": 2.886, "fair_value": 1.985, "relative_strength": -7.617065, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.958092, "energy": 8.001101, "activity_lines": [ 2.903333, 2.948909, 2.957714, 2.92628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 46810, "typical_volume": 65674.45, "trend": 2.883, "fair_value": 1.986859, "relative_strength": -9.416507, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.412899, "energy": 16.960111, "activity_lines": [ 2.854, 2.916727, 2.944476, 2.920086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 40217, "typical_volume": 64964.25, "trend": 2.886333, "fair_value": 1.990321, "relative_strength": -8.486082, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.793268, "energy": 25.549539, "activity_lines": [ 2.848, 2.905091, 2.939476, 2.919892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }