{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d244d6d-e10f-4ea3-b384-eb15af1f7020", "symbol": "CFA", "name": "Amova-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT Index ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 50.195, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.83, "architecture_energy": 20.404, "architecture_maturity": 23.39, "architecture_confidence": 61.9, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.09, "rotation_up": 45.07, "upward_expansion": 35.21, "deceleration": 43.72, "rotation_down": 15.44, "downward_expansion": 41.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.795733, 0.790825, 0.790622, 0.793315 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.793, "trend_reference": 0.799185, "distance_from_trend": -0.007739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.738115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.877175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029537, "excess_performance": -0.184372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009681, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.857178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4180367, "relative_activity": 0.721392, "balance": 0.857178, "dry_up": 0.803377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012953, "annualized_volatility": 0.083754, "from_high_reference": -0.051307, "from_low_reference": 0.04117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.799185, "fair_value_reference": 0.738115, "structural_low": 0.769167, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007957, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.002664, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.033897, "worst_return": -0.122199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008525, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.007361, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.090535, "worst_return": -0.113436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098815, "worst_return": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.737705, "energy": 22.677129, "activity_lines": [ 0.790665, 0.786248, 0.789336, 0.7936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.803, "volume": 5647952, "typical_volume": 6047688.2, "trend": 0.799989, "fair_value": 0.737636, "relative_strength": -15.192804, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.262818, "energy": 20.361322, "activity_lines": [ 0.795533, 0.789482, 0.790476, 0.793766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.793, "volume": 4180367, "typical_volume": 5794858.7, "trend": 0.799185, "fair_value": 0.738115, "relative_strength": -16.877175, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.82975, "energy": 20.404158, "activity_lines": [ 0.795733, 0.790825, 0.790622, 0.793315 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }