{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d25c597-ca61-45f5-b8d5-cd0c5b42884c", "symbol": "1010", "name": "Riyad Bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.424, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.23, "architecture_energy": 16.614, "architecture_maturity": 14.33, "architecture_confidence": 55.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.31, "rotation_up": 25.69, "upward_expansion": 17.18, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 55.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.323221, 20.240136, 20.370464, 20.524879 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.42, "trend_reference": 20.619977, "distance_from_trend": -0.009698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.425655, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.585695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035077, "excess_performance": -0.003248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025857, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12717861, "relative_activity": 0.984018, "balance": 0.909931, "dry_up": 1.123897, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034909, "annualized_volatility": 0.150287, "from_high_reference": -0.087578, "from_low_reference": 0.096884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.619977, "fair_value_reference": 19.425655, "structural_low": 18.998996, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00518, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002545, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.132686, "worst_return": -0.078261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.032075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027787, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.129977, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040552, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013301, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.13833, "worst_return": -0.160103, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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20.561336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.431696, "volume": 14391572, "typical_volume": 12262507.2, "trend": 20.596587, "fair_value": 19.445677, "relative_strength": 3.164369, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.806233, "energy": 43.085076, "activity_lines": [ 20.108666, 20.171257, 20.428067, 20.552893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.34, "volume": 18970441, "typical_volume": 12592815.9, "trend": 20.597628, "fair_value": 19.433039, "relative_strength": 4.673063, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.514478, "energy": 23.513092, "activity_lines": [ 20.196943, 20.200242, 20.393919, 20.536338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.42, "volume": 12717861, "typical_volume": 12924418.15, "trend": 20.619977, "fair_value": 19.425655, "relative_strength": 2.585695, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.230099, "energy": 16.613515, "activity_lines": [ 20.323221, 20.240136, 20.370464, 20.524879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }