{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d272968-8897-495d-8f8f-8782278efe4c", "symbol": "HBTA", "name": "HORIZON EXPEDITION PLUS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.856, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.531, "architecture_energy": 21.667, "architecture_maturity": 34.293, "architecture_confidence": 80.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.57, "rotation_up": 28.54, "upward_expansion": 56.59, "deceleration": 88.02, "rotation_down": 31.24, "downward_expansion": 20.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.7063, 31.847051, 31.771756, 31.068257 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.4426, "trend_reference": 30.27299, "distance_from_trend": 0.071668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.314575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.339153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114866, "excess_performance": -0.010759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027663, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97403, "relative_activity": 0.333571, "balance": 0.85877, "dry_up": 1.849326, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044816, "annualized_volatility": 0.207236, "from_high_reference": -0.025745, "from_low_reference": 0.271257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.27299, "fair_value_reference": 27.314575, "structural_low": 25.5201, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.1386, "volume": 77964, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.87, "volume": 163644, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.4148, "volume": 88418, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.8273, "volume": 223869, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.3, "volume": 1750328, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.4426, "volume": 97403, "typical_volume": 292000.7, "trend": 30.27299, "fair_value": 27.314575, "relative_strength": -1.339153, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.53053, "energy": 21.6669, "activity_lines": [ 31.7063, 31.847051, 31.771756, 31.068257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }