{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d2a273c-12de-4c23-a429-8197d59dab59", "symbol": "KROS", "name": "Keros Therapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.561, "architecture_energy": 34.738, "architecture_maturity": 61.653, "architecture_confidence": 78.337, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.61, "rotation_up": 19.72, "upward_expansion": 3.15, "deceleration": 58.14, "rotation_down": 49.82, "downward_expansion": 74.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.619333, 10.74, 10.878548, 11.290376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.15, "trend_reference": 12.4785, "distance_from_trend": -0.106463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.464455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621578, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.062489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.365396, "excess_performance": -0.552849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010151, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365396, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.914327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1472460, "relative_activity": 0.996949, "balance": 1.914327, "dry_up": 0.692191, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104346, "annualized_volatility": 0.553188, "from_high_reference": -0.505543, "from_low_reference": 0.150671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.4785, "fair_value_reference": 29.464455, "structural_low": 9.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.006303, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.010622, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.586817, "worst_return": -0.291925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.247177, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030265, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.347695, "worst_return": -0.380124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.255492, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.187601, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.657605, "worst_return": -0.775527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-35.244355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.116239, "energy": 24.857948, "activity_lines": [ 11.120667, 10.947091, 11.062667, 11.799462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.06, "volume": 850988, "typical_volume": 1725090.55, "trend": 13.029167, "fair_value": 29.821763, "relative_strength": -37.223013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.602444, "energy": 34.620579, "activity_lines": [ 10.784667, 10.799273, 10.960929, 11.584312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.07, "volume": 768279, "typical_volume": 1604055.85, "trend": 12.746833, "fair_value": 29.62266, "relative_strength": -36.918089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.406378, "energy": 39.632409, "activity_lines": [ 10.491333, 10.661273, 10.866048, 11.393398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 1472460, "typical_volume": 1476966.2, "trend": 12.4785, "fair_value": 29.464455, "relative_strength": -33.062489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.560871, "energy": 34.738144, "activity_lines": [ 10.619333, 10.74, 10.878548, 11.290376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }