{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d2b4d12-2c58-4754-bb28-86422ddf7b5c", "symbol": "OLA", "name": "Orla Mining Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.105, "architecture_energy": 75.406, "architecture_maturity": 43.88, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 24.78, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 40.71, "rotation_down": 58.35, "downward_expansion": 91.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.975333, 13.403818, 15.155111, 16.952274 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.46, "trend_reference": 19.125959, "distance_from_trend": -0.296244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.059555, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.293589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368206, "excess_performance": -0.488627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.769943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.347214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2576795, "relative_activity": 0.566688, "balance": 0.347214, "dry_up": 1.609625, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128211, "annualized_volatility": 0.776529, "from_high_reference": -0.550644, "from_low_reference": 0.140195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.125959, "fair_value_reference": 11.059555, "structural_low": 11.805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.065611, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.047388, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.503205, "worst_return": -0.17135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124238, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.07904, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.464744, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.514634, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.443216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.826923, "worst_return": 0.06875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 4557561.4, "trend": 19.519105, "fair_value": 10.971237, "relative_strength": -33.963881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.434193, "energy": 79.618828, "activity_lines": [ 13.235333, 13.953276, 16.032362, 17.781601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.54, "volume": 13922715, "typical_volume": 5029842.15, "trend": 19.335468, "fair_value": 11.012479, "relative_strength": -36.102383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.563802, "energy": 79.690439, "activity_lines": [ 12.913333, 13.558727, 15.526324, 17.331336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.46, "volume": 2576795, "typical_volume": 4547111.9, "trend": 19.125959, "fair_value": 11.059555, "relative_strength": -33.293589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.10525, "energy": 75.406368, "activity_lines": [ 12.975333, 13.403818, 15.155111, 16.952274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }