{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d308f3e-0982-4fcb-a836-b531d1fba94c", "symbol": "LCID", "name": "Lucid Group, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.249, "architecture_energy": 17.028, "architecture_maturity": 42.718, "architecture_confidence": 60.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.11, "rotation_up": 38.22, "upward_expansion": 28.28, "deceleration": 47.32, "rotation_down": 16.85, "downward_expansion": 45.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.007334, 113.257455, 110.62181, 120.971484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 119.0, "trend_reference": 137.409, "distance_from_trend": -0.133972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 466.68282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.408321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.30897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058861, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.464083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21842, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.177646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11847, "relative_activity": 0.79332, "balance": 1.177646, "dry_up": 1.549341, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181791, "annualized_volatility": 0.759505, "from_high_reference": -0.750555, "from_low_reference": 1.479167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.409, "fair_value_reference": 466.68282, "structural_low": 48.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.202151, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.233939, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.327434, "worst_return": -0.274775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.209821, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.248037, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.529709, "worst_return": -0.361051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.308103, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.407548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.373999, "worst_return": -0.534014, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.284483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.253514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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-48.6982, "energy": 45.575454, "activity_lines": [ 100.662, 99.870546, 111.203143, 126.740194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 129.990005, "volume": 57246, "typical_volume": 14089.35, "trend": 145.592, "fair_value": 486.879422, "relative_strength": -47.072256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.929875, "energy": 20.201158, "activity_lines": [ 111.156669, 105.15291, 111.485953, 125.552947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.5, "volume": 10522, "typical_volume": 14483.75, "trend": 142.575, "fair_value": 479.589679, "relative_strength": -53.350963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.2149, "energy": 21.284911, "activity_lines": [ 112.111335, 106.326365, 110.010239, 123.224431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.029999, "volume": 12933, "typical_volume": 14731.55, "trend": 140.375667, "fair_value": 473.121923, "relative_strength": -43.569069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.656111, "energy": 14.072463, "activity_lines": [ 118.676001, 110.958546, 110.686572, 122.35056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.0, "volume": 11847, "typical_volume": 14933.45, "trend": 137.409, "fair_value": 466.68282, "relative_strength": -46.408321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.248841, "energy": 17.027989, "activity_lines": [ 120.007334, 113.257455, 110.62181, 120.971484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }