{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d37b394-bd7a-4b58-8850-47bb0e8f2c7b", "symbol": "STZB34", "name": "Constellation Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.32, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.926, "architecture_energy": 70.668, "architecture_maturity": 16.969, "architecture_confidence": 91.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 13.23, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 70.63, "downward_expansion": 91.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.269668, 172.276616, 177.678632, 182.523797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 172.720001, "trend_reference": 189.202921, "distance_from_trend": -0.087118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 259.075055, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.188899, "excess_performance": -0.131851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.102969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 253, "relative_activity": 0.285666, "balance": 0.102969, "dry_up": 2.912268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057314, "annualized_volatility": 0.296337, "from_high_reference": -0.270019, "from_low_reference": 0.060335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 189.202921, "fair_value_reference": 259.075055, "structural_low": 162.891861, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.015135, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.022795, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.182452, "worst_return": -0.216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021479, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017098, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.126271, "worst_return": -0.179191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078213, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063677, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.161201, "worst_return": -0.16156, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.302675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 260.918438, "relative_strength": -19.129748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.31513, "energy": 77.810329, "activity_lines": [ 170.507403, 175.475342, 180.862859, 185.346927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 164.220001, "volume": 3169, "typical_volume": 873.7, "trend": 189.957921, "fair_value": 259.983822, "relative_strength": -20.046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.266773, "energy": 80.201051, "activity_lines": [ 167.147317, 172.892568, 178.785084, 183.635921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 172.720001, "volume": 253, "typical_volume": 885.65, "trend": 189.202921, "fair_value": 259.075055, "relative_strength": -12.241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.925865, "energy": 70.668244, "activity_lines": [ 168.269668, 172.276616, 177.678632, 182.523797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }