{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d3fc6ec-787e-4705-96b7-92fb8f964da8", "symbol": "COOT", "name": "Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.68, "architecture_energy": 82.349, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.315, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.92, "rotation_up": 8.64, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 78.69, "downward_expansion": 95.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.40202, 0.458382, 0.522685, 0.551862 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.4067, "trend_reference": 0.59359, "distance_from_trend": -0.314847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.88118, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.53846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.007135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.364631, "excess_performance": -0.552084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.314847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.53846, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.500071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.364631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258286, "relative_activity": 0.431534, "balance": 0.412688, "dry_up": 1.610395, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197762, "annualized_volatility": 0.654724, "from_high_reference": -0.909622, "from_low_reference": 0.162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.59359, "fair_value_reference": 0.88118, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034026, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.010299, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.649626, "worst_return": -0.016066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009277, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068103, "worst_return": -0.086658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.072631, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018993, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.072631, "worst_return": -0.072631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"fair_value": 0.893146, "relative_strength": -46.171459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.969196, "energy": 79.39299, "activity_lines": [ 0.492693, 0.543847, 0.576768, 0.593938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3972, "volume": 1072014, "typical_volume": 1199714.6, "trend": 0.611637, "fair_value": 0.889113, "relative_strength": -49.054467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.4943, "energy": 86.280622, "activity_lines": [ 0.449307, 0.5118, 0.557813, 0.579697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3799, "volume": 1646715, "typical_volume": 647992.7, "trend": 0.6064, "fair_value": 0.885007, "relative_strength": -51.218753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.487476, "energy": 87.674592, "activity_lines": [ 0.4142, 0.480476, 0.538129, 0.564746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4067, "volume": 258286, "typical_volume": 598530.0, "trend": 0.59359, "fair_value": 0.88118, "relative_strength": -50.007135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.680129, "energy": 82.348712, "activity_lines": [ 0.40202, 0.458382, 0.522685, 0.551862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }