{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d43f9f9-d4d6-4fd6-8aa2-6958bab1561b", "symbol": "SOLV", "name": "SOLVENTUM CORP", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.514, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.532, "architecture_energy": 51.468, "architecture_maturity": 8.831, "architecture_confidence": 63.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.18, "rotation_up": 63.16, "upward_expansion": 50.68, "deceleration": 32.78, "rotation_down": 17.37, "downward_expansion": 22.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1382.0, 1375.779088, 1360.079804, 1356.098189 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1382.0, "trend_reference": 1367.79633, "distance_from_trend": 0.010384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1399.999545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.981567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054962, "excess_performance": 0.109629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.076923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.076923, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01224, "annualized_volatility": 0.12451, "from_high_reference": -0.121418, "from_low_reference": 0.085625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1367.79633, "fair_value_reference": 1399.999545, "structural_low": 1300.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021374, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 911.48999, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 800.0, "volume": 273, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 995.0, "volume": 347, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 1064.0, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": null, 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1376.533333, 1360.936901, 1349.906802, 1355.645865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1382.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.35, "trend": 1379.662996, "fair_value": 1400.33287, "relative_strength": -2.672694, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.5703, "energy": 62.685443, "activity_lines": [ 1382.0, 1366.684357, 1353.507327, 1355.413844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1382.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.35, "trend": 1373.729663, "fair_value": 1400.164678, "relative_strength": -3.206864, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.967027, "energy": 64.141238, "activity_lines": [ 1382.0, 1371.631814, 1356.898327, 1355.564618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1382.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.35, "trend": 1367.79633, "fair_value": 1399.999545, "relative_strength": -2.981567, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.532017, "energy": 51.46797, "activity_lines": [ 1382.0, 1375.779088, 1360.079804, 1356.098189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }