{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d4b7d36-e522-4139-9e1b-dd9d3e0671b1", "symbol": "XHS", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE SERVICES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.334, "architecture_energy": 66.525, "architecture_maturity": 80.156, "architecture_confidence": 84.508, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 58.2, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.56, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.16886, 132.899966, 125.807172, 120.563239 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 135.36, "trend_reference": 115.064378, "distance_from_trend": 0.176385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 97.814209, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.908551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.274271, "excess_performance": 0.148647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070986, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200414, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.274271, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.326668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 155293, "relative_activity": 1.777448, "balance": 2.326668, "dry_up": 1.441235, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037612, "annualized_volatility": 0.178426, "from_high_reference": -0.025626, "from_low_reference": 0.490698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.064378, "fair_value_reference": 97.814209, "structural_low": 98.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006846, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.004761, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.112796, "worst_return": -0.052415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031852, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.023952, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.070339, "worst_return": -0.102365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005851, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077011, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114231, "worst_return": -0.14377, "sufficient": true }, { 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77.336963, "energy": 91.872923, "activity_lines": [ 134.371202, 128.768916, 120.772211, 116.64581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.8235, "volume": 144912, "typical_volume": 78748.05, "trend": 113.376489, "fair_value": 97.273145, "relative_strength": 13.763591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.428307, "energy": 86.311918, "activity_lines": [ 134.5545, 130.360426, 122.504733, 117.952597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.7056, "volume": 80678, "typical_volume": 81101.9, "trend": 114.224157, "fair_value": 97.532162, "relative_strength": 11.955348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.355675, "energy": 66.351054, "activity_lines": [ 133.977467, 131.562128, 124.099215, 119.199636 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.36, "volume": 155293, "typical_volume": 87368.5, "trend": 115.064378, "fair_value": 97.814209, "relative_strength": 9.908551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.334058, "energy": 66.52512, "activity_lines": [ 134.16886, 132.899966, 125.807172, 120.563239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }