{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d4c9fff-547f-4cea-ab32-7232e786c4d3", "symbol": "PIP", "name": "PipeHawk plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.454, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.308, "architecture_energy": 22.368, "architecture_maturity": 22.945, "architecture_confidence": 54.999, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.94, "rotation_up": 18.65, "upward_expansion": 17.58, "deceleration": 55.18, "rotation_down": 50.82, "downward_expansion": 44.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.223333, 0.232727, 0.242738, 0.238387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.215, "trend_reference": 0.229167, "distance_from_trend": -0.061818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.156567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.141289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102564, "excess_performance": 0.051329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.499088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.497639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102564, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66558, "relative_activity": 0.166216, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.107777, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.294168, "annualized_volatility": 0.988543, "from_high_reference": -0.47561, "from_low_reference": 1.118227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.229167, "fair_value_reference": 0.156567, "structural_low": 0.1185, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037496, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 1.83871, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.111404, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.1256, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.193548, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.201271, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.224579, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.580645, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.346154, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.430148, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.970588, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.37037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.282609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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0.241667, 0.245909, 0.247952, 0.239495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 617063.7, "trend": 0.227, "fair_value": 0.155292, "relative_strength": 7.167118, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.683233, "energy": 7.332718, "activity_lines": [ 0.235, 0.241364, 0.246571, 0.239355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 13071, "typical_volume": 560832.35, "trend": 0.228, "fair_value": 0.155917, "relative_strength": 5.292803, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.112723, "energy": 11.228763, "activity_lines": [ 0.23, 0.237727, 0.245214, 0.239226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.215, "volume": 66558, "typical_volume": 400429.8, "trend": 0.229167, "fair_value": 0.156567, "relative_strength": -0.141289, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.308148, "energy": 22.368417, "activity_lines": [ 0.223333, 0.232727, 0.242738, 0.238387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }