{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d4e53bf-479f-4c76-936d-ba0875cdd1fe", "symbol": "2340", "name": "Artex Industrial Investment Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.571, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.54, "architecture_energy": 52.048, "architecture_maturity": 27.251, "architecture_confidence": 84.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.58, "rotation_up": 67.13, "upward_expansion": 82.78, "deceleration": 58.06, "rotation_down": 15.66, "downward_expansion": 7.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.270667, 12.038182, 11.408238, 11.059548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.45, "trend_reference": 10.738667, "distance_from_trend": 0.159362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.338974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131737, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.596814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.220588, "excess_performance": 0.252418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159362, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115968, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.253928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.547723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3072317, "relative_activity": 2.775553, "balance": 13.547723, "dry_up": 1.426781, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074575, "annualized_volatility": 0.286393, "from_high_reference": -0.157645, "from_low_reference": 0.381798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.738667, "fair_value_reference": 14.338974, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001028, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051897, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.041162, "worst_return": -0.106061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063472, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141798, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.036797, "worst_return": -0.120207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.17867, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.119048, "worst_return": -0.253886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.172207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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78.769139, "activity_lines": [ 11.753333, 11.241273, 10.792476, 10.623419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.5, "volume": 1536397, "typical_volume": 895110.8, "trend": 10.569667, "fair_value": 14.468205, "relative_strength": 12.999927, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.987028, "energy": 83.76556, "activity_lines": [ 12.09, 11.538909, 10.984524, 10.751548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.87, "volume": 295334, "typical_volume": 897792.25, "trend": 10.611, "fair_value": 14.41891, "relative_strength": 6.726313, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.784661, "energy": 77.89266, "activity_lines": [ 12.109333, 11.678364, 11.104667, 10.835441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.3, "volume": 1413287, "typical_volume": 955649.55, "trend": 10.665333, "fair_value": 14.376474, "relative_strength": 12.849706, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.493657, "energy": 60.549876, "activity_lines": [ 12.21, 11.864364, 11.255571, 10.944409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.45, "volume": 3072317, "typical_volume": 1106920.6, "trend": 10.738667, "fair_value": 14.338974, "relative_strength": 11.596814, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.540063, "energy": 52.047859, "activity_lines": [ 12.270667, 12.038182, 11.408238, 11.059548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }