{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d514415-a2c0-4f08-bc99-17f86104357a", "symbol": "300006", "name": "Chongqing Lummy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.138, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.776, "architecture_energy": 29.072, "architecture_maturity": 19.283, "architecture_confidence": 52.893, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.9, "rotation_up": 21.02, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 61.02, "rotation_down": 40.51, "downward_expansion": 62.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.891333, 4.869455, 5.180952, 5.283527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.11, "trend_reference": 5.333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.044615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.052938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007767, "excess_performance": -0.015167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.164568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117896253, "relative_activity": 0.660095, "balance": 1.164568, "dry_up": 1.027046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110191, "annualized_volatility": 0.569066, "from_high_reference": -0.255102, "from_low_reference": 0.246341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.333, "fair_value_reference": 4.044615, "structural_low": 4.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.005342, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.154971, "worst_return": -0.184982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004411, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015338, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.892562, "worst_return": -0.263941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030187, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02891, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.566116, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019499, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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5.42081, 5.416366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.56, "volume": 159507606, "typical_volume": 169413338.65, "trend": 5.349, "fair_value": 4.015897, "relative_strength": -11.2256, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.357113, "energy": 52.994328, "activity_lines": [ 4.77, 4.922, 5.33181, 5.364817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.79, "volume": 288627154, "typical_volume": 175074970.6, "trend": 5.347, "fair_value": 4.024744, "relative_strength": -6.651777, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.738214, "energy": 39.665548, "activity_lines": [ 4.768667, 4.855818, 5.26719, 5.328753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.87, "volume": 167711389, "typical_volume": 177716813.25, "trend": 5.334, "fair_value": 4.034103, "relative_strength": -3.279897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.615648, "energy": 37.611081, "activity_lines": [ 4.802667, 4.832182, 5.212381, 5.297978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.11, "volume": 117896253, "typical_volume": 178604984.9, "trend": 5.333, "fair_value": 4.044615, "relative_strength": -3.052938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.776263, "energy": 29.072127, "activity_lines": [ 4.891333, 4.869455, 5.180952, 5.283527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }