{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d515d97-a9d2-4057-9abc-076f3af4be53", "symbol": "CHF", "name": "Chesterfield Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.69, "architecture_energy": 10.078, "architecture_maturity": 16.788, "architecture_confidence": 43.969, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.5, "rotation_up": 18.8, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 63.72, "rotation_down": 42.85, "downward_expansion": 31.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.01005, 0.010391, 0.01048, 0.010303 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.00975, "trend_reference": 0.010258, "distance_from_trend": -0.049553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.006678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.459973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.248931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.122664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.459973, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.281679, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1092499, "relative_activity": 1.217061, "balance": 16.281679, "dry_up": 0.379331, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.235897, "annualized_volatility": 0.556479, "from_high_reference": -0.458333, "from_low_reference": 0.625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010258, "fair_value_reference": 0.006678, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.069892, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.074579, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.627604, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.276843, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.461538, "worst_return": -0.379888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.195455, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.24648, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.076923, "worst_return": -0.559322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.458333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.548601, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.615385, "worst_return": -0.645455, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-18", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.933333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.360544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.37931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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0.0108, 0.011045, 0.010474, 0.010392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 7312, "typical_volume": 1183055.25, "trend": 0.010508, "fair_value": 0.006648, "relative_strength": -3.925195, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.484311, "energy": 5.350519, "activity_lines": [ 0.010633, 0.010959, 0.010506, 0.010393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0105, "volume": 214179, "typical_volume": 1164833.3, "trend": 0.010492, "fair_value": 0.006662, "relative_strength": -5.607535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.643913, "energy": 5.516226, "activity_lines": [ 0.010567, 0.010855, 0.01054, 0.010392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00975, "volume": 48043, "typical_volume": 989624.7, "trend": 0.0104, "fair_value": 0.00667, "relative_strength": -13.702503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.110058, "energy": 7.972456, "activity_lines": [ 0.01025, 0.010605, 0.010508, 0.010345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00975, "volume": 1092499, "typical_volume": 897653.55, "trend": 0.010258, "fair_value": 0.006678, "relative_strength": -14.248931, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.690363, "energy": 10.078115, "activity_lines": [ 0.01005, 0.010391, 0.01048, 0.010303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }