{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d5bf23f-cfbd-4a7f-9c6a-0ade2e44e798", "symbol": "USSRS", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.094, "architecture_energy": 58.171, "architecture_maturity": 64.662, "architecture_confidence": 74.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 47.92, "upward_expansion": 76.7, "deceleration": 91.38, "rotation_down": 29.7, "downward_expansion": 14.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.735001, 32.701001, 32.248096, 31.486785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.630001, "trend_reference": 30.690667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095773, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.473978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.761969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139421, "excess_performance": 0.056537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095773, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00762, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 36.056923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 36.056923, "dry_up": 0.326614, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019854, "annualized_volatility": 0.158374, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.248793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.690667, "fair_value_reference": 27.473978, "structural_low": 26.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013862, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.022246, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.105369, "worst_return": -0.062942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033705, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124268, "worst_return": -0.111896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109836, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.035818, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.137695, "worst_return": -0.017763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001781, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270996, "worst_return": -0.232782, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.056006, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.035209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"close": 33.064999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4102.75, "trend": 30.2215, "fair_value": 27.187311, "relative_strength": -0.566825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.761188, "energy": 69.466011, "activity_lines": [ 32.717, 32.457637, 31.334571, 30.756645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.07, "volume": 306, "typical_volume": 4002.1, "trend": 30.331, "fair_value": 27.246606, "relative_strength": 0.804356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.135864, "energy": 78.544589, "activity_lines": [ 32.883667, 32.631818, 31.587191, 30.940419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3648.7, "trend": 30.420333, "fair_value": 27.300324, "relative_strength": -2.016635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.485235, "energy": 72.092631, "activity_lines": [ 32.769334, 32.626, 31.755476, 31.071323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.095001, "volume": 650, "typical_volume": 3666.6, "trend": 30.4955, "fair_value": 27.352087, "relative_strength": -2.577637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.234263, "energy": 55.779775, "activity_lines": [ 32.528001, 32.555728, 31.883834, 31.179366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 3916, "typical_volume": 3811.5, "trend": 30.5695, "fair_value": 27.407119, "relative_strength": -2.242615, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.770688, "energy": 43.909812, "activity_lines": [ 32.377667, 32.499819, 32.007572, 31.289334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.630001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3494.95, "trend": 30.690667, "fair_value": 27.473978, "relative_strength": 0.761969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.093859, "energy": 58.171011, "activity_lines": [ 32.735001, 32.701001, 32.248096, 31.486785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }