{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d649034-22af-484a-aaa0-5870d3fdedb6", "symbol": "GUJALKALI", "name": "Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.932, "architecture_energy": 29.278, "architecture_maturity": 41.616, "architecture_confidence": 62.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.76, "rotation_up": 56.62, "upward_expansion": 67.1, "deceleration": 62.34, "rotation_down": 18.32, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 655.899996, 639.709091, 655.737621, 637.369896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 674.0, "trend_reference": 598.665003, "distance_from_trend": 0.125838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 654.819293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.429977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.426153, "excess_performance": 0.469862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.1743, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.426153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797565, "relative_activity": 0.068371, "balance": 0.572544, "dry_up": 0.068355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071285, "annualized_volatility": 0.49803, "from_high_reference": -0.173006, "from_low_reference": 0.647318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 598.665003, "fair_value_reference": 654.819293, "structural_low": 409.149994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01004, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001209, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.766279, "worst_return": -0.148947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113359, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.044711, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.395865, "worst_return": -0.261502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.554098, "worst_return": -0.167443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"relative_strength": 18.186441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.999437, "energy": 16.759135, "activity_lines": [ 639.853329, 632.722727, 654.07405, 632.088928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 674.0, "volume": 797565, "typical_volume": 11665227.65, "trend": 598.665003, "fair_value": 654.819293, "relative_strength": 17.429977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.932217, "energy": 29.278439, "activity_lines": [ 655.899996, 639.709091, 655.737621, 637.369896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }