{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d6577b9-31a9-4200-b922-3093ce2bee81", "symbol": "2360", "name": "Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipe Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.892, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.722, "architecture_energy": 6.711, "architecture_maturity": 21.334, "architecture_confidence": 56.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.65, "rotation_up": 30.72, "upward_expansion": 28.96, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 23.69, "downward_expansion": 46.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.552, 17.415075, 17.310927, 17.613485 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.99, "trend_reference": 18.269485, "distance_from_trend": -0.015298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.416568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.941031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.162866, "excess_performance": -0.131037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.424484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 649995, "relative_activity": 1.232054, "balance": 2.424484, "dry_up": 1.764494, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09604, "annualized_volatility": 0.463667, "from_high_reference": -0.379655, "from_low_reference": 0.271867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.269485, "fair_value_reference": 34.416568, "structural_low": 14.144563, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055349, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.051912, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.033654, "worst_return": -0.116088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.166458, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.096238, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08894, "worst_return": -0.246801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.218182, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.112994, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.067275, "worst_return": -0.304569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 494709.45, "trend": 18.488819, "fair_value": 34.813106, "relative_strength": -18.437381, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.278171, "energy": 18.790617, "activity_lines": [ 17.655333, 17.205968, 17.316114, 17.726687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.1, "volume": 296949, "typical_volume": 499092.5, "trend": 18.355819, "fair_value": 34.607337, "relative_strength": -17.014826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.513725, "energy": 12.931454, "activity_lines": [ 17.454666, 17.231522, 17.269473, 17.637086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.99, "volume": 649995, "typical_volume": 527570.15, "trend": 18.269485, "fair_value": 34.416568, "relative_strength": -13.941031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.722133, "energy": 6.711033, "activity_lines": [ 17.552, 17.415075, 17.310927, 17.613485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }